Out of the five films nominated for best foreign language film, Tsotsi and the Final Days were released in the past week. Don’t Tell, Joyeux Noël, will not be released until March and Paradise Now is already out of theatres. This bodes well for Tsotsi, the Final Days and Paradise Now. Best foreign language films released in the U.S. before final balloting is complete have won 77.78 percent of the time (FilmJerk).

Paradise Now and Tsotsi are the two films that have been the most talked about this Oscar season. Paradise Now, from Palestine, tells the story of two suicide bombers. Tsotsi, from South Africa, tells the story of a rutheless gang leader who grows to care for a baby he kidnapped. Tsotsi is ultimately a story of redemption. Paradise Now also tells a humanizing story, but will Oscar voters want to vote for a film that makes them sympathize with suicide bombers? I say no. As a result, I predict that Tsotsi will win best foreign language film.