Will Win: I did not love Brokeback Mountain. There, I said it. It was good – not amazing. I liken Brokeback Mountain to the English Patient. When I watched both of them, I recognized that I was seeing a good film with great cinematography. However, I also recognized that my seat was becoming increasingly uncomfortable because I was ready for the film to end. I left the theatre thinking, “That will win the best picture Oscar” not “Seeing that movie has changed how I see the world.”

I get it. Jack and Ennis are in love and are forced to deny their love by their own and society’s fear of homosexuals. This is a great message, but it didn’t need to be told over two hours and thirteen minutes. The movie is based on an Annie Proulx short story, yet, it has been stretched out so much that it has lost resemblance to the original. I think Brokeback could have easily eliminated a half hour of Ennis and Jack staring at each other, and staring into space. Nevertheless, I still have no doubt that Brokeback will take home the Oscar. Brokeback will win for the same reason that Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner won in 1967. Brokeback takes a lighting rod topic and makes it palpable for a mass audience. Like Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, it also does so in a unique and somewhat thought-provoking way.

Should Win: Capote or Good Night, and Good Luck