First things first. Oscar Frenzy will post its official predictions later in the day. We will finalize the predictions on Saturday, but for the most part, very little will change. The predictions are the result of months of analysis and represent your best chance to win your Oscar pool. Stay tuned for the announcement.

Moving on. This time of year, most sites (including us) obsess over who will win, but what about who should win? We all know that the Academy often plays favorites and that sometimes momentum is unstoppable. Ask anyone, the most deserving nominee is often left clapping in the audience with a fake smile on his or her face. Here’s what would happen if we got a ballot this year.

Best Picture:

“No Country” seems to have a stranglehold on this category, but the best film among the five is the delightful and subtly emotional “Juno.” “Juno” is not just a teen movie. It has multiple storylines, each involving complex adult characters facing unique challenges and circumstances. The characters make choices consistent with themselves and not subject to cliche. And in the end, there is a powerful message about love. More that any other movie, this film makes you think about what life is all about.

Best Director:

The Coens are the favorites and we don’t have much argument with them. At the same time, a movie does not direct itself. For everything to come together – the acting, the story, the visuals, the theme, it takes a director’s vision. Therefore, we will feel most comfortable matching up picture and director, and give the award to a 30 year old wiz by the name of Jason Reitman.

Best Actor:

It’s obvious by now that the Academy ALWAYS picks the showier performance. And you cannot be more over the top than Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood.” But take a look at George Clooney in Michael Clayton. He sheds the Danny Ocean smooth-sailing persona of “Ocean’s 11” and plays a guy who’s 45, broke, and riding shotgun for 15 years. And we believe it. For most of the film, he’s a lost soul just trying to get through the day and muster as much dignity as he can. It’s a terrific, nuanced performance topped off by a killer last scene.

Best Actress:

At first glance, we’re tempted to go with our hearts and pick the lovable, sarcastic teen from “Juno,” but we can’t completely ignore all the talk about the fact that Ellen Page is mostly playing herself. Whether she is or not, Julie Christie is extremely good as an Alzheimer’s patient in “Away From Her” and there are several scenes from that film that simply move you to tears.

Best Supporting Actor:

Tom Wilkinson picked a bad year to give a superb performance. He’s the soul in Warner Brothers’ riveting drama “Michael Clayton. Unfortunately, he’s up against Javier Bardem, who utterly transforms himself in every way into the psychotic killer from “No Country For Old Men.” Think about it. It’s not that easy to play pure evil and still manage to elicit a laugh or two from the audience.

Best Supporting Actress:

This is without a doubt one of the best years in recent memory for supporting actresses. Amy Ryan is completely believable as a “white trash” mom distraught over her kidnapped child. Tilda Swinton could walk into a board meeting at Merck tomorrow and fit right in. But our favorite is the spoiled brat Briony, played by young Saoirse Ronan. She owns the first half of “Atonement” and she makes you hate her, but also understand her at the same time.Greystoke: The Legend of Tarzan, Lord of the Apes rip