The countdown to the Oscars continue and today we’re going to dispel with some commonly held myths. Obviously, everyone loves a surprise or a good heartfelt story. But you also have to be able to gauge what is plausible and what isn’t. We’ll examine a few of the “hot races” and what NOT to look for on Oscar night.

#1. Ruby Dee is not going to win Supporting Actress.

Everyone’s high on her because she won the award from the Screen Actor’s Guild. But what people don’t seem to realize is that that was her prize already. Ms. Dee is beloved, sure, but the Oscars still are a standard bearer for excellence (for the most part at least). Ms. Dee’s performance pales in comparison to those of the other four nominees, particularly Tilda Swinton and Amy Ryan, who will probably duel it out for the win. She was in only a tiny portion of the movie and had basically one memorable scene with Denzel Washington where she lectures him about killing people. That is simply not going to cut it with the Academy.

#2. No Country For Old Men is not going to sweep.

Again, it’s a fine film and it’s been showered with praise by the precursors. But it’s no “Titanic” or “English Patient.” It’s still mainly a critics’ darling that has very limited broad-based appeal. It’s more respected than loved. The sense of importance may still allow it to hang on to Best Picture, but don’t expect “No Country” to win across the board in categories like sound, cinematography, editing, and sound editing. In past years, the Academy has done a good job of spreading the wealth and we see no reason why that trend will not continue this year.

#3. A song from “Enchanted” will not win.

Here we go again. People always believe that mutiple nominations in one category is a good thing. It’s not. Unless there’s a clear consensus as to which one it best, it almost surely results in a split vote and multiple losers. Look at what happened to “Dreamgirls” last year in this category. The song “Listen” was one of the best in recent years, but it couldn’t pull out the win with two other DG tunes in the mix. This year, “Enchanted’s” three song nods will throw the race to either “Falling Slowly” from “Once” or “Raise It Up” from “August Rush.”

#4. Hillary Clinton will be spared.

Just for fun here, we know that Hollywood by and large supports Obama and the host is the politically saavy Jon Stewart, host of the Daily Show. You can bet your horses that there will be more than a fair share of subtle digs at Hillary and her currently floundering campaign. Whether or not this sparks a backlash will be the most interesting question.

#5. The show will not come in under three and a half hours.

The producers try for this each and every year, and each and every year they fail. Why even bother? It’s only one night out of the freaking year anyway. Do they really think people on the east coast can’t stay up a little late ONE day of the year to find out who wins Best Picture?

Eight days to go, folks. Keep it here.

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