Oscar Best Picture Predictions – No Drama Here
December 21st, 2009
Author: DaveWell, as the first wave of awards have settled in, we can be very confident of one thing. These will be your ten Academy Award nominated films for Best Picture:
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
Up
Nine
Invictus
A Serious Man
Up in the Air
There you have it. The least exciting Best Picture nominations race in Oscar history. And we have the Academy to thank for it. As we all know, the Academy decided earlier this year to expand the Best Picture field from five to ten nominees. And now, we are starting to see some of the consequences.
The list of ten films above may look a little familiar for those who follow the Oscars seriously. It is the same ten films nominated for Best Picture by the Broadcast Film Critics. The Broadcast top ten follows the National Board of Review top ten. In the old days, there would be considerable intrigue at this point because out of numerous top ten lists, only five films, the best five, would ultimately make the cut. Not the case anymore. Because of the Academy’s decision, virtually EVERY serious Best Picture contender is assured of a nomination.
Think about it. What is more exciting, deciding between The Reader or The Dark Knight for the fifth Best Picture slot, or deciding between Julie and Julia and A Serious Man for number ten. Few people will care about the latter, because ultimately, neither film will have a prayer of a chance to win the big prize.
The Academy is right that expanding the field of nominees rewards good films, but what it fails to do is DISTINGUISH them. Every year there will likely be around ten worthy Best Picture films. The problem is now, there is no distinction between #2 and #10. The Hurt Locker will be in exactly the same class of nominees as Up. Should that really be the case?
While the nominees may be obvious, we still have a suspenseful Best Picture race when it comes to the winner. Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker seem to be ahead of the field, but don’t count out Avatar and Precious. Stay tuned as the Broadcast critics and Hollywood Foreign Press announce early next year. Happy holidays from all of us!
The only thing I respect about this decision is the fact that up until 1943, there were ten Best Picture nominees.
Connor, Avatar was a great movie, but not so great it deserves Best Picture. It’s held back by its lack of an original storyline. It’s pretty much just a sci fi remake of Dances With Wolves, and suffice it to say James Cameron can’t write. The dialogue sucks, and is very cheesy. The effects are probably the best since The Lord of the Rings, but if the Academy voted for a picture because it had a great visual effects, then 2001: A Space Odyssey and Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope would have one years ago. I believe Avatar was one of the best pictures of the year, but not so good that it deserves Best Picture.
And don’t be hatin’ on The Hurt Locker. It’s about time there was a fictional Iraq film that was really good.
I’m not so sure I’d be confident about “Nine” being nominated. It was not well reviewed by critics and is a box office flop. “Bright Star”, “Star Trek” or “District 9″ could be in there even though the Academy generally doesn’t like Sci-Fi. Part of the reason for the 10 film nomination is to get more box office hits nominated. All 3 films are critical faves and “Star Trek” and “District 9″ did great at the box office. I see possible acting noms for “Nine”, especially for Marion Cotillard, and certainly costume design for Colleen Atwood, and maybe even a nominated song and perhaps Art Direction. I’m not so sure about a Best Pic nom.
“The Hurt Locker will be in exactly the same class of nominees as Up. Should that really be the case?”
No, they shouldn’t. Up is a far better film than The Hurt Locker.
I have to respectively disagree with Connor. I would be somewhat shocked if Avatar won best picture. Visually, it was a stunning movie, but story wise it was completely unoriginal. I will, however, agree that it was still an amazing and breathtaking movie certainly worthy of some awards.
I am super hopeful that Avatar will win Best Picture, because let’s face it…movies about flying on airplanes and defusing bombs in Iraq cannot live up to the visually arresting world of Pandora in Avatar. This movie was beyond words, so incredible that i had to see it a second time…simply because there is just so much to see. The color, vibrancy, depth, and sound astounded me. The music was fantastic, and everything was honestly beyond belief. I watched this in 3D and i felt like i was transported to another planet. If you haven’t already, go and see this movie. James Cameron does not disappoint. Only a quarter of a billion dollars could have made a movie this brilliant.