The first awards show is set to broadcast on Sunday night and we’re excited for it. It will be the first time a film, actor, or actress can be rightfully considered a frontrunner for this year’s Academy Awards. And there are wide open races and question marks all over the place. For example, are Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson really the favorites, as all the pundits seem to think they are? Who has the edge in the Best Picture Musical/Comedy category, where The Big Short and The Martian go head to head? The winner there could be the de facto alternative to Spotlight for the Best Picture Oscar? And speaking of Spotlight, is it really as much of a lock as people think it is? Carol got the most nominations after all. Could we witness an upset in the biggest category of all? Our reliable predictions are set forth below:

Best Picture Drama – Spotlight

Best Picture Musical/Comedy – The Big Short

Best Actor Drama – Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Best Actress Drama – Brie Larson, Room

Best Actor Musical/Comedy – Matt Damon, The Martian

Best Actress Musical Comedy – Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Best Director – George Miller, Max Max: Fury Road

Best Supporting Actor – Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Best Supporting Actress – Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Best Screenplay – The Big Short

Best Animated Film – Inside Out

Best Foreign Language Film – Son of Saul

Best Score – Carol

Best Song – Love & Mercy