Most people didn’t have Spielberg’s political thriller on their short list for Best Picture. But ignoring it now could prove to be a costly mistake. Recently, Universal (the largest of the studios backing Best Picture nominees) unveiled a massive campaign touting Munich for Best Picture. For a film that failed to garner a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture drama, the thought of Munich scoring a monumental, Shakespeare in Love style upset is difficult to fathom. However, we can conceive of one possible scenario. Take your two clear frontrunners: Brokeback Mountain and Crash. Both can be loosely categorized as progressive minded message movies. Both play heavily to the indie crowd. Though Munich is arguably a message movie too, it has more a prestige factor going in its favor and likely could attract a stronger following among older Academy voters. See where we’re going with this? A split vote between Brokeback and Crash could catapult Munich into the winner’s circle. In a way, it could be fitting. After all, it was Spielberg who was the victim of the most memorable Oscar shocker in recent memory (Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan). Perhaps this year he can return the favor.