This is one of those categories where it is sometimes better to just pick randomly. Almost always, there is some kind of an upset. A few years ago, everything thought the genocide drama God Sleeps in Rwanda would win. It didn’t. Last year, most experts were certain it would come down to China’s Unnatural Disaster: Tears of the Sichuan Province or The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant. Neither film won. From looking at recent winners, it seems eligible voters go back and forth between serious, tragic films and more personal, uplifting ones. Here are this year’s nominees:

Killing the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Quigang

Strangers No More is about a children’s school in Tel Aviv that welcomes displaced children from 48 different countries. It’s a weeper that’s being touted as the frontrunner. Therefore, it surely will not win.

Both Sun Come Up and The Warriors of Quigang deal with environmental issues such as climate change and pollution. There has been little buzz on both films, at least compared with the other three. The films may suffer from a lack of emotional punch and also may cancel each other out.

Killing the Name is about a suicide bomber that disrupts a wedding and subsequent mission to eradicate Muslim extremists. Probably, it’s the most powerful of the five films, but it’s also clearly the most political. We think the subject matter will probably turn some people off.

Which leaves Poster Girl, which is a story about a young 20-something female Iraq war veteran with PTSD trying to make a new life for herself. It could be just the kind of intimate, original story that captures voters’ hearts. Plus, it’s got the catchiest name of the five. We’ll go with Poster Girl for the win and cross our fingers.