One of the top categories of the Oscars has usually been awarded to the Best Picture winner or Best Picture runner-up. Yet in the last decade, there has been stunning upsets in this category, including Precious’ win over Up in the Air last year and The Pianist beating out The Hours back in 2002. Probably the most important thing to remember here is that the voters don’t necessarily vote for what movie had the best or hardest adaptation, but rather the film they liked the best. Here are this year’s nominees:

127 Hours, Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle
The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3, Michael Arndt
True Grit, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
Winter’s Bone, Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

Three of the contenders can be pretty easily ruled out. An animated film has never won this category (and probably never will due to the Academy’s bias), so Toy Story 3 is likely out of luck. 127 Hours is a bit too far removed from people’s radars and Winter’s Bone, even though beloved by some, is still too much of a gritty independent film to win a big award like this. Getting nominated was probably enough for Winter’s Bone. Speaking of which, it still is a travesty that Ben Affleck was not nominated for The Town.

So that makes it a battle between True Grit and The Social Network. At first glance, you would think Aaron Sorkin has this in the bag. He has won every major precursor award and plus, he’s Aaron Sorkin, the brilliant writer of The West Wing and The American President. But Academy voters do not necessarily pay attention to previous award shows. They go their own route. Frankly, as measured by True Grit’s surprising 10 nominations, they might like the Coen brothers’ Western more than Fincher’s so-called “Facebook movie.” Voters may also see this as the best opportunity to giveĀ  True Grit something, if they choose not to vote Hailee Steinfeld for Supporting Actress. It will be a very close race, but we still think there is enough love to squeak out a win for Sorkin and The Social Network.