Well, what better time to look ahead than the day after the big show. Last year, we correctly forecast “Atonement” as a Best Picture nominee one-year-in-advance. Two years ago, we nailed “The Departed.” This year, we hope to improve on our track record. As you will see, there are some heavy hitters coming up later in 2008, films with big stars AND big directors. It could be one of the most competitive seasons in recent Oscar history. Here are the names of the Best Picture films we think will be announced on nominations morning.

The Curious Case of Benjamin

11:47: No Country takes Best Picture. In the end, it looks like the pundits were right. No Country swept all the guilds and was in the frontrunner’s position the entire season. It might not have been a typical Oscar film, but it was good enough this year. As they said in the movie, You Can’t Stop What’s Coming. See you next year when we hope to finish better than 15 for 24.

11:38: Cohen brothers win for best director.

11:31: Best actor goes to Daniel Day-Lewis. Not so surprising. What is odd…
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Yes, if you REALLY want to win your Oscar pool, we suggest you pick “No Country For Old Men.” It’s better to be safe than sorry. However, as the hours tick away to the start of the big show, we are sensing at least the possibility of a monumental upset.

Here’s the theory behind it all. “No Country” was a film that voters by and large respected, but they did not love it. It also was extremely violent, which may turn it off to female voters. Because people recognize it is a solid film, they will give it something…
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Just a friendly reminder that for the third year running, Oscar Frenzy will be live blogging the action as it unfolds tomorrow night. We’ll bring you all the stunning upsets and memorable speeches and point-on analysis as the evening rolls along. We’ll also track our predictions, and compare them to other Oscar pundit heavyweights. It should be very close indeed.

For other blogging, check out awardsdaily.com as they usually have a live commentary as well.

We’ll get it kicked up around 5:30 (Pacific time), so join us for the biggest party of the year!…
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This is it. No more second-guessing. Now we let the voters decide.

Oscar Frenzy is making two calculated changes to our predictions. In the Supporting Actress category, we’re backing Amy Ryan over Tilda Swinton. Here’s the simple rationale. Amy Ryan was simply better. The argument for Michael Clayton was that it HAS to win something. But look closer at recent Oscar history and you’ll find that well deserving films such as Gangs of New York and Good Night and Good Luck walked away empty-handed. No reason it can’t happen to Michael Clayton. As a nail in the coffin, George…
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Without further adieu, here are our official projections for who will be taking home the gold statues on Sunday night.

Best Picture: No Country For Old Men

In the end, it’s more about the campaigns that the films themselves. Nobody has really distinguished themselves in this race and therefore, the favored film coming in reigns supreme. Since its inception, “No Country” has been hailed as a classic and we’re thinking this perception alone fuels it all the way to the finish.

Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men

They’ve paid their dues…
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First things first. Oscar Frenzy will post its official predictions later in the day. We will finalize the predictions on Saturday, but for the most part, very little will change. The predictions are the result of months of analysis and represent your best chance to win your Oscar pool. Stay tuned for the announcement.

Moving on. This time of year, most sites (including us) obsess over who will win, but what about who should win? We all know that the Academy often plays favorites and that sometimes momentum is unstoppable. Ask anyone, the most deserving nominee is often left…
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It’s becoming apparent that the Best Picture race is down to two films. And that second, non-Coen brothers film may well surprise you. According to the latest buzz in Hollywood, Warner Brothers’ “Michael Clayton” is surging right at the perfect time. Will it be enough to sprint past “No Country” at the finish line? Let’s take a closer look.

At first glance, it would seem “Clayton” doesn’t stand a chance. It hasn’t won any major precursor awards. And it’s more or less a legal thriller. When’s the last time such a movie won Best Picture? But explore the film…
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One of the most intriguing storylines of the year is, oddly enough, in the sound category. In case you haven’t heard, sound mixer Kevin O’Connell has been nominated twenty (20!) times for sound and NEVER won. Yup, he is the Susan Lucci and Buffalo Bills of the Oscars. The problem is, past nominations have usually been for films which were heavy underdogs coming in. Word to the wise for sound technicians with golden dreams – find out where Peter Jackson lives.

This year, Kevin O’Connell is up for the massive summer blockbuster “Transformers.” If you believe most web predictors…
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