This is an old article. Please visit our December predictions for an updated analysis.

Here at Oscarfrenzy, it’s never too early to start looking ahead to next year’s awards. Whereas 2005/2006 marked the year of the socially-conscious, small budget independent film, this next year will likely signal a return to traditional big studio, big star, big budget Hollywood movie-making. We’ll take an in-depth look at Best Picture and offer bold predictions for all the major categories.

BEST PICTURE:

The nominees will be…

Breaking and Entering (The Weinstein Company)
The Departed (Warner Bros)
Flags of Our…
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Well, it was not an especially great year for us predictions-wise, but not terrible either. As you may know, our final tally was 16/24. Good enough to tie Entertainment Weekly, but probably not good enough to help you win your Oscar pool. Oh well, all you can do is learn from your mistakes. This is our first year at predicting the Oscars and despite falling a little short of our own expectations, we did post a respectable score, better than many other expert sites. In this edition, we take a quick look back at the categories we missed and offer…
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It was the worst decision the Academy has ever made in its seventy-eight year history. The American movie-going public has a right to be outraged. They will be talking about this night for years and decades to come.

Brokeback Mountain won every single major award leading up to the Oscars. Over 70 critics’ associations. The Golden Globe. The Bafta. But not the Academy Award. Some may think this is actually somehow cool, that the Academy chose to go in its own direction. But really, it’s not. The Oscars are an AWARDS show, and their purpose is to reward the…
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11:20: And the Best Picture is…Crash. Oh, no. That’s a big upset. I still don’t think Crash is nearly as good as Brokeback. I predict that Crash will not hold up well over time. At the end of the night, we are 16/24.
11:16: Best Director goes to Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain. We are 16/23.
11:10: It’s getting late and we still have two more awards to go. Crash wins Best Original Screenplay. We are 15/22.
11:05: Best Adapted Screenplay goes to Brokeback. We are 14/21.
10:55: Best Actress belongs to Reese Witherspoon. I’m happy to see Walk the…
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Well, the big night is almost upon us. And the biggest question of the night remains who will walk away with the evening’s top prize: Best Picture. No doubt Brokeback Mountain is your clear favorite, having won every conceivable precursor award, including last night’s Independent Spirit Award. But surveys of actual Academy voters have unearthed a strong support base for Crash. Besides, there always remains that burning question in the back of everyone’s minds…can a movie dealing with the controversial subject of homosexuality (in a Western no doubt) win over an Academy that is still fairly conservative in many regards?…
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After much deliberation, here are our final picks:

Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain
Best Director: Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz
Best Original Screenplay: Crash
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
Best Foreign Film: Tsotsi
Best Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins
Best Animated Feature Film: Wallace & Gromit
Best Art Direction: Memoirs of a Geisha
Best Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
Best Costume Design: Memoirs of a Geisha
Best Documentary Short: God Sleeps in Rwanda
Best Film Editing: Crash
Best Makeup: The Chronicles of…
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Will Win: I did not love Brokeback Mountain. There, I said it. It was good – not amazing. I liken Brokeback Mountain to the English Patient. When I watched both of them, I recognized that I was seeing a good film with great cinematography. However, I also recognized that my seat was becoming increasingly uncomfortable because I was ready for the film to end. I left the theatre thinking, “That will win the best picture Oscar” not “Seeing that movie has changed how I see the world.”

I get it. Jack and Ennis are in love and are forced…
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Your recent winners for Best Cinematography include The Aviator, LOTR: Return of the King, The Road to Perdition, LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring, and Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon. Go a little further back and you have Titanic, The English Patient and Braveheart. What does that tell you? When it comes to cinematography, the Academy loves something big. Sure, Road to Perdition won a few years ago, but that had more to do with nominee Conrad Hall’s death that year than anything else. Among this year’s nominees (Batman Begins, Brokeback Mountain, Good Night and Good Luck, Memoirs of a Geisha…
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You should all know this by now. What makes the difference in whether or not you win your Oscar pool is not the Best Picture or Best Actor categories. In our current Oscar world, those are fairly predictable. No, what matters are the often hard to predict technical categories. Let’s take a look at Sound Mixing, where the nominees are King Kong, War of the Worlds, Memoirs of a Geisha, Chronicles of Narnia, and Walk the Line. Worlds and Narnia haven’t received much buzz. Their prize is in the nominations. Geisha features a sound crew that has previously been nominated…
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