Well, as we approach the much anticipated date of the ceremony, there’s inevitably speculation among the top Oscar prognosticators (us, included) of a potential upset in the top race of the night. Some claim Crash is gaining momentum day by day. Others tout that Universal’s all-out blitz campaign for Munich is paying off. We don’t doubt that other films have a chance, but perhaps it is time to remind people of the solid factors that still make Brokeback Mountain your odds-on favorite to occupy the space under Million Dollar Baby under Best Picture winners. In the spirit of user-friendliness, let’s keep it…
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Three films are nominated for best visual effects: the Chronicles of Narnia, King Kong, and War of the Worlds. A year ago, I would have assumed Revenge of the Sith to be a lock for best visual effects, but it didn’t make the cut. Both Chronicles of Narnia and War of the World had contributions from George Lucas’ Industrial Light & Magic. To make my pick, I consulted the awards list for the Visual Effects Society(VES) Awards. Two of the three pictures nominated in this category were also nominated by VES: Chronicles of Narnia and King Kong. So, I…
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It’s not the sexiest category, but it’s got teeth. After all, good music is the backbone of any film. In the past, the winner of the original score category has often followed two trends: match up wth the eventual Best Picture winner, or (imagine this!) reward the actual best original score. Let’s take the second part first. I’ve listened to all five nominated scores. Believe me, this is not an especially easy task. Tower Records is not exactly overflowing with CDs featuring the instrumental music of The Constant Gardener. Anyways…three of the five nominated scores are fairly bland. Pride and…
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When picking Oscars, bluffing your way through the picks in one category can be the difference between office glory and defeat. One category that I often do not pay much attention to when making my picks is Short Film (Live Action). This year I decided to try and learn about the films before Oscar night. Below I present information on each film and predict a winner.

Ausreisser (The Runaway)
When the six-year-old son he never knew he had shows up on his doorstep one morning, a novice father tries to find the boy’s absent mother.This is…
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Oscar pundits often argue that the Academy like to reward young, emerging actresses with a best supporting actress trophy. I thought that it would be interesting to evaluate how much experience the best supporting actress winners have had in the past twenty years. To do so, I looked for the number of IMDB film credits for each actress prior to the year that she won the statue. I found the the best supporting actress winner has an average of 20 credits. To get a more accurate picture, I also looked at the median number of credits as…
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Most people didn’t have Spielberg’s political thriller on their short list for Best Picture. But ignoring it now could prove to be a costly mistake. Recently, Universal (the largest of the studios backing Best Picture nominees) unveiled a massive campaign touting Munich for Best Picture. For a film that failed to garner a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture drama, the thought of Munich scoring a monumental, Shakespeare in Love style upset is difficult to fathom. However, we can conceive of one possible scenario. Take your two clear frontrunners: Brokeback Mountain and Crash. Both can be loosely categorized as progressive minded message…
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Currently, Oscar Frenzy is not predicting George Clooney to win in any of his three nominated categories. However, there is a hidden factor that we might have discounted, the Clooney Factor. The Clooney Factor is the notion that although he might not deserve an award, everyone loves George Clooney, and will vote for him because he is a stand-up guy. My favorite Facts of Life alum has been nominated for: best supporting actor in “Syriana,” and best director and original screenplay for “Good Night, and Good Luck.” Matt Monochio recently pointed out…
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In his last post, Dave asks whether Heath Ledger will benefit from Brokeback Mountain likely winning Best Picture. This got me wondering just how often the best actor and best picture from from the same film.

After doing some research, I found out that in the past 30 years the best actor and best picture winners have been matched up only 30 percent of the time. However, in the past 10 years, this match up has occurred fourty percent of the time. If we look only at the past five years, the best actor and picture have matched up…
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The New York Times compared him to Brando. Dozens of critics have raved him, commonly throwing around words like “masterful,” “brilliant,” “sublime,” and “breathtaking.” So why does it seem that the Best Actor race has already been wrapped up? Well, let’s take a closer look. It’s true that Phillip Seymour Hoffman has won all the major precursor awards: The Broadcast Film Critics Award, the Golden Globe, and most recently the SAG. But sweeping the precursors is not an absolute guarantee of Oscar success. Take two examples from recent history. In 2001, Russell Crowe captured the Globe and the SAG for…
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